A University of Iowa futures market that tracks the fate of the presidentialcandidates is thus far mirroring the traditional voter polls. The “IowaElectronic Market” lets investors buy a share of their favorite candidatesimilar to buying commodity futures on the Chicago Board of Trade. ProfessorForrest Nelson says the price of those shares indicates the popularity of thecandidate. Like the poll results, Democrat Bill Bradley has gained some onfront runner Al Gore.Bradley has made a steady gain in price since August. Vice President Gorestill leads Bradley with a 60 cent to 35 cent share price. Nelson saysGeorge W. Bush holds the lead in the Republican trading.Bush is at 70 cents a share and the rest of the republicans are groupedtogether are at 24 cents a share. He says shares for Steve Forbes haveremained flat at five cents. Nelson says the field of challengers hasfailed to make any noticeable challenge to Bush.The I-E-M forecast was first developed in 1988 as a way to teach studentsabout the commodities markets. Nelson says the results have proved to bequite accurate. He says they are always within one-percent of the actualvote totals.Detailed trading information on the I-E-M is available at the I-E-M websiteat www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem.
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