New projections from the census bureau show little reason to worry about running out of living space in Iowa — unless you happen to be looking for a retirement home. Beth Henning is the coordinator of the State Data Center and says the Census Bureau projects Iowa’s population will increase slowly to the year 2016 then slowly decline until 2030. She says over the 25 year period it’s projected the population will increase about one-percent, or 28-thousand people. Henning says the projection has the population increase slowing to a crawl. She says to give an idea of how things have slowed, in the last four years the population increased one-percent, and now they’re saying it’s going to take 25 years to increase the same amount. Iowa’s already known as a state of gray hair and she says it looks like it’ll get grayer. She says, “They’re predicting that the population under age 45 would decrease, and the population age 45 and over will increase. The Census Bureau is also predicting that by the year two-thousand-thirty we’ll have the same number Iowans age 65 and older as we have under age 18, and that hasn’t been the case before.” Henning says there are a couple of factors involved. She says it’s partly because the “Baby Boomers” are getting older and she says the fertility rates continue to decline, so there are fewer people to replace the people who’re getting older. Henning says other states are seeing more growth than Iowa, and that will have an impact on the state’s standing nationwide. She says, “If the projections hold true, then Iowa would rank 34th in total population among the states, down from where it currently ranks right now, which is at 30th place.” The projections say the median age of Iowa’s population would increase from 37 years to 42 years. While the projections don’t bode well for state officials hoping to increase the population growth in the state — Henning says the figures are still projections, and not set in stone. She says, “I think it’s important to remember you know, that the projections are a reasonable conjecture of what Iowa’s population is going to look like if nothing changes the basic assumptions. And you know that’s a big if. Because when you look back over the past several decades there have been events, you know, economic events, political events that have occurred that have shifted the demographic trends in the state.” She says the Census Bureau’s previous projections for states were released in 1995. Henning said a comparison of those projections to the 2000 census and 2004 estimates for Iowa shows that the Census Bureau’s earlier projections underestimated the state’s actual population growth. The new state projections, rankings, and maps showing population trends are on the State Library’s State Data Center web site at www.iowadatacenter.org
