February 9, 2012

Creighton economic survey shows growth on the way

Ernie Goss

After a less-than-stellar holiday season, a survey finds Iowa’s economy rebounded in a big way during January.

Creighton University economist Ernie Goss says the monthly survey of business leaders in Iowa and eight other Midwestern states is pointing to growth over the next three to six months.

In particular, Goss says Iowa manufacturers are expanding at the strongest pace in the region. “Our survey of supply managers for the month of January was very good,” Goss says.

“(We’re) seeing some good strong numbers, biggest one-month jump that we’ve recorded since October of 2009. The leading economic indicator from the January survey was very strong.”

About one in five supply managers surveyed said farm income growth is contributing to their companies’ expansion. While the December numbers are often the best of the year, Goss says the December 2011 figures were tepid, much lower than expected.

“It looks now, in retrospect, like what happened in December was really just a supply disruption, a hiccup, as you might say,” Goss says. “That supply disruption from Thailand because of the flooding is what brought the overall number down for December.”

For the first time since July, the employment index climbed into positive territory. Surveys over the past several months indicated job growth in the region had slowed significantly, but he says January’s reading is clearly good news on the employment front.

“We’re likely to see continuing employment growth,” Goss says. “In fact, the employment number was very good for the month. It’s still going to take us another 18 months to two years to get back to pre-recession levels for the entire region.”

As Iowa companies expand, both durable and nondurable goods manufacturers reported strong business conditions for the month. He says Iowa firms linked to agriculture and international markets continue to experience very healthy growth.

IBC “competitive index” shows little movement for Iowa

The “Iowa Competitiveness Index” compiled by a group of the state’s largest businesses shows no change in 4 of the 5 measures of the state’s economic outlook, and the fifth moved from “improving” to “no significant progress.” Iowa Business Council executive director, Elliott Smith, says the results show an economy that’s idling in place.

“We are really at this juncture seeing no significant changes. We’re kind of stuck in an area where there may be efforts underway and we are making some progress, but relative to all the states, were not seeing to consider ourselves out ahead of the curve in most respects,” Smith explained.

The index looks at: economic growth, education and workforce readiness, governance and fiscal matters, health and well being, and workforce demographics and diversity. While there’s not much movement in the index, Smith says it’s not an indictment of the total system.

He says there are some good things in workforce education and readiness in terms of A-C-T scores and the percentage of the population that’s getting a high school degree. “But on the other hand the percentage of our population that’s getting bachelor’s degree is quite low,” Smith says. “And those are the sort of things that employers are concerned about.”

While the index shows things aren’t changing, there are efforts underway to try and make some changes — such as the governor’s education reform plan. “We’re supportive of the efforts by the governor and the legislature to make progress in that area, it seems as though that’s always just a very hard area to affect any significant change,” Smith says.

He says the IBC is hopeful the effort to improve the reading ability of third graders succeeds along with the effort to get more students more proficient in science and math. “That’s going to be critical,” he says. Smith says the IBC wants to keep the focus on the need to improve.

“We’ve identified some of the problems, there are some initiatives out there which have just sort of launched and we’re anxious to see how early results go, the healthiest states initiative being one of those,” Smith says. “It’s good to just try and create an awareness right now.”

You can see the complete index on the IBC website at: www.iowabusinesscouncil.org.

The Iowa Business Council’s 24 members are the top executives of 20 of the largest businesses in the state, the three state university presidents, and Iowa’s largest banking association.

DOT plan would use database to price vehicles for registration

The director of the Department of Transportation says a proposal under consideration would make it harder to lie about the cost of a used vehicle when someone pays their first registration fee. D.O.T. director, Paul Trombino, wants to assign a set value to cars and trucks, instead of letting a buyer report the purchase price.

He says it’s now hard to weed out people who report a lower price to pay a lower registration fee. “Maybe the value is substantially lower than the true value of what the vehicle is. We have an investigative unit department that does at times follow leads up on those issues, they do take time,” Trombino says.

He says the state should be relying on a database of vehicle values that is standard for everyone. “If there’s at least some sort of a value-based for that it would reduce a lot of effort from our perspective of kind of chasing these investigations as they come up, and would have a kind of set level that everyone agrees to, just as they do in the second year or beyond as the for the value of that vehicle,” Trombino explains.

Trombino says relying on a database, along with some other changes, could save the state as much as eight-million-dollars each year.

The D.O.T. is trying to find $50-million in “savings” in the agency’s budget this year. Governor Branstad directed the D.O.T. to come up with that amount to be redirected at road construction, rather than raise the state gas tax.

Iowa Bicycle Coalition survey shows cycling contributes millions to the economy

A study by the Iowa Bicycle Coalition has determined that the economic and health benefits of cycling amount to nearly $365-million  of direct or indirect impact on the state. Coalition executive director, Mark Wyatt, says the direct impact involves a lot of things.

“It’s people spending money on bicycle gear and equipment, and it’s people taking trips and enjoying unique trails, or having the opportunity for hotel stays, and things like that that really add up in dollars very quickly,” Wyatt says. He says the impact is bigger than they expected.

“That’s a million dollars per day that’s spent on bicycling…averaged out over the year,” Wyatt says. The study estimates that bicycling saves the state $73.9 million in healthcare costs for those who cycle recreational, and it shows another $13,266  in healthcare costs saved by those who commute to work.

Wyatt says the impact of the state’s bike trails could be even bigger. “I think there’s a huge opportunity for tourism, and one of the things that this study didn’t address was out-of-state tourism dollars coming into the state,” Wyatt explains.

The survey was released on the heels of the annual Iowa Bicycle Summit, which is Saturday in Des Moines. Wyatt says the summit has been an education session the past eight years, but this year they’ve expanded it to a consumer expo.

“People can come and look at bike gear and talk to people who’re running bike trail events, and all sorts of trends and what’s great about bicycling,” Wyatt says.

There are some 50 vendors who will be at the summit. The event runs from 8:30 a.m. until 4:30 p.m. at Veterans Auditorium in Des Moines. You can find out more at: www.iowabicyclecoalition.org.

Grocery store chain has an app to help you find things

App shows you how to find items at Hy-Vee.

An Iowa-based grocery store chain is launching a mobile application for smart phone users so they can be smarter shoppers.

Most of us have been at the supermarket and discovered there’s a product on our list that we can’t seem to find in the store, but they must have it, right?

Hy-Vee’s Ruth Comer says the new app features a product locater function. Comer says, “If you’re shopping and you want to know where to find the toothpicks or the cake mixes, you can either speak the product into your phone or you can type it and the app will come back and tell you it’s in aisle 6 on the left side or aisle 14 on the right side, so you can go right to that section and find that product.”

Comer says, “The majority of our stores now are mapped to coincide with the app and it will pull up a map of the store and show you, right on the map, where the product’s located.”

If you arrive at that aisle and find the shelf empty, never fear.

“You can send a Tweet to Hy-Vee and let them know if a product’s out of stock,” she says. “They’ll get that message right away and can look to see if there’s more in stock.”

You can also browse the weekly ads, search for recipes and build an online shopping list. The app is free. Find it at “www.hy-vee.com”

Meredith buys recipe website

An Iowa-based magazine publishing giant is expanding its reach into the virtual cooking market. Meredith Corporation is buying the website AllRecipes.com from Reader’s Digest Assocation. Meredith spokesman Art Slusark says the price tag was hefty but “fair” at $175-million.

“Allrecipes.com is the number-one digital food website in the world,” Slusark says. “It has over 25-million monthly unique visitors. It really takes Meredith’s digital initiatives up to a new level.”

While the website is already the leader in its domain, he says there is an opportunity to optimize the site for other growing audiences.

“Really, it hasn’t expanded beyond the Internet to other platforms, such as mobile, social media or print,” Slusark says.

“Given our expertise in those areas, we think we can take this brand and make it a true, multi-platform brand.” Meredith, which is headquartered in Des Moines, publishes magazines including: Better Homes & Gardens, Fitness and Family Circle.

This popular website, he says, offers a perfect avenue for cross-promotion. “There’s opportunities to market Meredith magazine subscriptions on Allrecipes.com, plus there’s e-commerce opportunities for people that purchase products on the site as well,” Slusark says. “It really fits into our whole strategy. We want to try to reach American women where they are and on whatever platform they want to access.”

The deal is expected to close later this quarter. The purchase also introduces Meredith brands to new audiences, as Allrecipes.com has 17 sites in 22 countries.

Unemployment numbers don’t tell the whole story about state job market

Iowa’s unemployment rate fell below six percent in December — the first time it has been that low since June of 2009. But the lower rate doesn’t tell the whole story about the job market in the state. As demand trickles back, employers in the state have learned to make do with less workers.

Brandy Donahue of Amana has been a waitress on and off for the last 14 years, and says she was surprised by how tight the job market is. “Normally it’s a lot easier to find a job, one application and you go and talk to somebody and normally you get hired right away,” she explains.

“But now it’s a little bit harder. A lot more overqualified people are applying for the lower jobs, which makes it harder for those who aren’t overqualified.” With kids to care for and no extra money for gas, Brandy says she can only job search one day a week.

So far, they’re getting by on her husband’s paycheck, but they do miss her income. “Um, it’s stressful. But it hasn’t been too long, hopefully I can get my unemployment and something comes in. I don’t care what, just something. So, not a lot of light at the end of the tunnel.”

Iowa State University economist, Dave Swenson, says part of the problem is lots of Iowans are holding down two, even three jobs, just to get by. Swenson says, “We’re adding jobs to the economy, but we have fewer workers. That bothers me. What that means is if we are adding jobs to the economy it could very well be we’re adding part-time jobs, not full-time jobs.”

For those Iowans who’re older and looking for a job, it can be even tougher.  Sixty-three-year-old Gregg Stark of Cedar Rapids has a long career in manufacturing and management before being laid off about one year ago. Stark says a lot of the new jobs are high-tech and training intensive, and they favor younger workers..

“There are a lot of people coming out of college right now that have a knowledge and familiarity with computers that just blows away anybody over a certain point. You go for those skills as you can, but there’s a difference. So as an employer, you have a value judgment: the skills versus the experience,” Stark says.

Economist Swenson says people like Stark are the hidden reality in Iowa’s lower unemployment rate. “We know that we have a level of long-term unemployment that we have not seen for 70 years,” Swenson says.

“At some point, many of those people just simply drop out of the labor force. So the issue of the discouraged worker is something that everybody needs to pay attention to, because it’s an indirect sign of how healthy your economy is and how healthy your labor force is.”

So while the state’s jobs reports are looking better, the unemployment number is only part of the overall picture.