February 9, 2012

Kerry 1st, Edwards 2nd, Dean 3rd, Gephardt out

caucus2004

Iowa’s Democrats have shaken up the race for their party’s presidential nomination.

Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s campaign was in the doldrums for much of 2003, but Caucus Night 2004 ended with Kerry topping the charts, and he thanked Iowans for helping hm become the “come back Kerry.” Kerry said the New England Patriots won on Sunday, and on Monday, “this New Englander won and you’ve sent me on the way to the Super Bowl.” Kerry said “not so long ago” his campaign was written off, but Iowans listened, “stood the ground” and on Caucus Night stood with him so he could “take on George Bush.” Kerry asked an unknown woman he met in a barn — an Iowan who handed him a four-leaf clover — to call his campaign office so he could thank her, as Kerry said “this worked.”AUDIO

North Carolina Senator John Edwards finished in a strong second. Edwards said he started his Iowa campaign a year ago with the belief that “the politics of hope could overcome the politics of cynacism.” He said the people of Iowa, by voting for him, “confirmed that they believe in a positive, uplifting vision to change America.”AUDIO

Former front-runner Howard Dean, the former Governor of Vermont, left Iowa with a distant third place finish, but his speech last night was anything but a concession, with Dean at one point screaming “yeah” and sounding a bit like he was driving cattle to New Hampshire rather than a newly-challenged campaign. Dean said two years ago, no one would have predicted he’d finish third. “I would have liked to come in first tonight, and so would you,” Dean told supporters. “But you know what, I want to thank the people of Iowa…this is a wonderful, wonderful state with wonderful, wonderful people,” Dean said. AUDIO

Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt’s fourth place finish in the Caucuses finished his campaign. Gephardt said “this didn’t come out the way we wanted” but he said he’d been through tougher fights in his life. Gephardt told supporters when he watched his two-year-old son fight terminal cancer, it put everything “into perspective.” Gephardt told supporters that “life will go on” because his campaign was about the future and “the America ahead of us.” Ahead for Gephardt is a formal announcement at one o’clock today in St. Louis that he’s ending his campaign. AUDIO

Here’s how the delegate tally stacked up: Kerry finished last night with 38 percent; Edwards followed with 32 percent. Dean was back in third with 18 percent and Gephardt in fourth with 11 percent.

Key Republican advisor tries to

Republican all-stars have spread across the state, including behind-the-scenes advisor Mary Matalin.Bush lost Iowa to Al Gore by about four-thousand votes in 2000. Matalin says she’s here to “gin up the troops” on the Republican side, as there are Republican Caucuses tonight where local, neighborhood leaders will be chosen and Matalin says those folks are valuable troops in the G-O-P plan for November. Matalin says she’s not here to say anything about the Democrats, but during a Radio Iowa interview the chairman of the Republican National Committee said the Democratic presidential candidates had “poisoned the well” and when Matalin heard that, she had more to say. Matalin says the Democrats “have been nothing but negative” and she says that will “ricochet back on them” in the general election match-up against President Bush. Matalin says the Democratic candidates have been saying “ridiculous” things about the President. Matalin says Bush is the “transformational president” as he’s transformed the military and the economy has rebounded.

Dean visit causes problems at state MLK celebration

The annual state-sponsored celebration of Martin Luther King Junior Day celebration got overrun with the campaign craziness today. It seems Democrat candidate Howard Dean’s campaign announced he would be attending this morning’s celebration of the late civil rights leader at the State Historical Building. That prompted members of the national media to descend on the event, thinking Dean would be speaking. Organizers arrived to find the first two rows of seats in the auditorium lined with TV cameras. Organizer Ruth White asked the reporters to move and set the record straight on Dean’s appearance. Things seemed to calm down until Dean arrived trailed by dozens of reporters carrying cameras and boom mics. They followed Dean into the auditorium, blocking the aisles and jockeying to get Dean on camera. Dean’s handlers asked the reporters to move back — which didn’t seem to do much good — then they decided to pull out. Dean apologized to Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack for the commotion as Dean left out the side door about five minutes after his arrival. The event went on as planned, and before he spoke Governor Vilsack had this to say. He said maybe the national media should spend a little more time in Iowa so they could learn about being polite and respectful.

Countdown to Caucuses sees alliance set

The campaigning will soon end and the Iowa Caucuses will begin to help determine the direction of the democratic presidentail race. Two of the campaigns have apparently struck an alliance for tonight. Supporters of North Carolina Senator John Edwards and Ohio Congressman Dennis Kucinich are being encouraged to support the other candidate if their guy doesn’t reach that all-important 15-percent threshhold on the “first ballot” in tonight’s Caucuses. A candidate who’s under that 15 percent margin within each caucus is declared “unviable” and his supporters must align themselves with another candidate, or remain undecided. Massachusetts Senator John Kerry canceled his events today — he lost his voice after barnstorming the state for the past two weeks. During an interview with Radio Iowa, Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean issued a challenge to the supporters he’s lined up. Dean says for “two years we have built a movement to take back our party from Washington politicians and take back our country and from George Bush. We’ve worked hard. We have hundreds of thousands of people around America who are supporting us. We’ve raised more money than any other democrat. Now, they’ve got to prove on the ground that they can deliver.” Dean says the turning point in the race came last spring when America went to war in Iraq. Dean says he opposed the war when rivals John Kerry and Dick Gephardt and John Edwards all supported it and it gave him an opportunity to speak out Dean says Democrats won’t beat George Bush with a politician from Washington because they “say the right things, but they all poll for it first to make sure it’s o.k. to say it.” The candidate with the most riding on tonight’s outcome is Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt.During an interview with Radio Iowa, Gephardt said he’s excited about what’s going to happen tonight. Gephardt says he’s got a “great army” of 2,000 out-of-state and 3,000 Iowa volunteers who’re working to get supporters to the Caucuses. The one-time leader of Democrats in the U.S. House repeatedly says he has the best chance of any of the candidates to beat George Bush. Gephardt says he “feels a surge out here” and predicts — as he has repeatedly — that he’ll win tonight.Gephardt says he “always knew it would be a tight competitive race.” He says Iowans are tough judges, and were never going to hand the victory to anybody. Gephardt refuses to talk about what might happen to him if he loses tonight.Gephardt says his “assumption is that we’re going to win.” Iowa Democrats will gather in 1,993 precinct meetings tonight, and 13,940 delegates are up for grabs. The measure of who wins tonight will be which candidate lines up the most delegates.

G-O-P faithful out in Iowa too

Republican super stars like Mary Matalin and Rudy Guilianni are coming into the state today, aiming to steal some of the thunder from the Democrats. Republican National Committee chairman Ed Gillespie. Gillespie says Iowa’s a “very important battleground state” in November’s election. Bush narrowly lost Iowa — by two votes per precinct — in 2000. Some Iowa Republicans had hoped the G-O-P and the Bush campaign would be more active in Iowa the past few months as the Democratic presidential candidates canvassed the state, criticizing the President. Gillespie says the democrats “pumped a lot of poison in the well” but he says Republicans and the President will get their message out before the November election. President Bush will step into the spotlight tomorrow night when he delivers the State of the Union message in Washington. Some Democrats have suggested Bush’s trying to take the limelight away from the Democrat who wins Iowa’s Caucuses tonight.Gillespie says the “State of the Union” speech is always held in the third week of January, and the conspiracy theories are “off the mark.”

Caucus Campaign Ends Tonight

The closing moments of the 2004 Iowa Caucus campaign included rancor, rallies and a reunion of war buddies. Just hours remain in this race that seems to be going down to the wire, and the campaigns pulled out all the stops this weekend. Last night, Howard Dean’s wife, Judith Steinberg Dean, made her first appearance in the state, speaking at rallies in eastern Iowa. Dr. Dean said she hadn’t been with her husband as much as she’d like because she has a son in high school, a daughter in college and a medical practice with “patients that depend on me daily.” Dr. Dean, who still makes house calls on occasion, thanked Iowans for opening up their homes to her husband. The other Dr. Dean — the candidate — took some swipes at his competitors, reminding supporters that he began stating his opposition to the war in Iraq last spring. Dean said he “is so proud that other than Dennis Kucinich” he was the “only one running for president who stood up against the war in Iraq, not now but then.” One-quarter of Dean’s donors are under 30 years old, and Dean’s counting on legions of younger Iowans to Caucus for him tonight. For most, it will be their first Caucus. Dean said “now is the time to see if this enormous movement and outpouring of support from all over this country translates into votes.” Dean told his supporters they now have the chance to “prove it, or not.” On Saturday, Massachusetts Senator and Vietnam vet John Kerry was reunited with a man he saved 30 years ago in Vietnam. Retired cop James Rassman, a Republican, was a Green Beret back in 1969, when he was thrown into a river by an explosion on Kerry’s boat — an explosion that injured Kerry’s arm. He recounted his rescue Saturday at an event in Des Moines. Rassman says he grabbed onto a cargo net dangling on the front of Kerry’s boat, and Kerry came forward — under fire — and pulled Rassman on board. Rassman told Kerry he owed him his life and Kerry had his vote. Kerry said he was “overwhelmed” to hear Rassman’s story. Kerry downplayed his role in the rescue, saying “anybody would have done” what he did. “It really isn’t a big deal,” Kerry said. One of the big deal’s this wekeend was the Des Moines Register’s Iowa Poll, which showed Kerry had pulled out into first place by last Friday. Kerry said his campaign is moving because of the independence of Iowans who listen and try to find the person they can trust. North Carolina Senator John Edwards was second in the Register’s poll; Dean was third and Missouri Congressman Dick Gephardt fourth. Gephardt downplayed all the polls. Gephardt told supporters the Iowa Caucuses are an unusual event, and it’s hard to get an accurate poll because you don’t know who’s coming out. Gephardt says there’s “never in the history of the Iowa Caucus” been a voter turn-out effort like the one his campaign has set up, with the help of 21 international unions, including the Teamsters. Gephardt said in 1988, when he won the Caucuses, his campaign “didn’t hold a candle” to his organization this time around. If Gephardt doesn’t win tonight, after he had declared he would win, it could be the end of his political career, and his wife, Jane’s chin wobbled as Gephardt closed one rally yesterday with these words. Gephardt told his supporters he doesn’t “care about bein’ president…need the job…or need the title.” Gephardt said “America needs a leader who comes from the life experience” he’s had. Edwards, who vaulted from single digits weeks ago to second place in the Register’s poll, was perhaps the most boyant of the candidates, kicking off the closing weekend with a pep talk for his troops. Edwards said there was “so much energy and excitement and momentum” behind his campaign because it’s a campaign not based on cynacism but hope. That’s the theme Edwards repeated in stop after stop this weekend, to packed rooms where backers spilled into the corridors. Edwards said it is time “to make Americans proud to be Americans again, to make them believe in what is possible.” Long-shot candidate Dennis Kucinich made a flurry of appearances throughout the state, too, and took out huge ads in Sunday newspapers.

Dean "stock" slips; Kerry’s rising in U of I "market"

A stock market run by the University of Iowa shows democratic presidential candidate Howard Dean’s “stock” is slipping. Janet Berg, a University of Iowa accounting professor, helps manage the market which lets investors buy “stock” in a candidate. Berg says investors in the markets are putting their money on the candidate they believe will win the party’s presidential nomination. Dean’s stock price was as high as 76 cents in early December. It’s fallen to 20 cents. Berg says that’s an indication traders in the market now believe there’s only an even chance Dean will get his party’s nomination in August. Berg says the two “stocks” that are rising are those of Massachusetts Senator John Kerry’s and retired General Wesley Clark. Clark’s price has risen to 21 cents; Kerry’s stock price is 14 cents. Berg says that means traders believe there’s a 21 percent chance Clark will be the party nominee and a 14 percent chace Kerry will. Berg says the market is a good indicator because people are spending money on their hunches. Berg says they’ve found the market to be a better indicator of the outcome of the general election than public opinion polls. The market started in 1988 as a teaching tool. Berg says they use it in class to try to get students interested in the way markets work. It’s also used as a research tool to learn how markets function. To find out more on-line, go to www.biz.uiowa.edu/iem.