John Kerry leads George Bush by nearly five-points in Iowa, but the race is even closer in two neighboring states, according to a new survey by the University of Minnesota’s Humphrey Institute. The survey shows Kerry with a statistically significant lead in Iowa, 50-point-4 percent to Bush’s 45-point-7 percent, but the differences are smaller in Minnesota and Wisconsin. Kerry leads by just over three points in the Gopher State; Bush is ahead by two-and-a-half points in the Badger State–but those numbers are within the survey’s margin of error. Researchers say Ralph Nader and other third-party candidates hurt both Bush and Kerry’s numbers. They conclude, after four presidential elections in a row when Minnesota, Wisconsin and Iowa all voted Democratic, the region is up for grabs this year.