The latest economic survey of business leaders and supply managers across Iowa and the Midwest region shows improvement. Creighton University economist Ernie Goss compiles the numbers each month and says for the first time since September, we’re seeing positive growth.
"The index from that survey, which is a leading economic indicator, increased for the sixth time in the past six months and it’s slightly above growth neutral," Goss says.
"What this is telling us is the economy in the nine-state region has bottomed out and we’re likely to see the economy move out of this recession no later than the 4th quarter of this year." He says June’s economic index for the Midwest region is continuing to rise.
"This is the highest index we’ve seen since September of last year when the regional economy went into a nosedive at least from a job standpoint," Goss says.
"I have to say even with the upturn in the index, the leading economic indicator, we’re still seeing job growth lagging behind. The job index, the employment index, is still not very good. It has inched up but still well below the overall index." Even with the good news, Goss says job loss will remain a problem for the next year.
"I don’t expect to see job grow in the nine-state region until the first half of 2010 and maybe even toward the middle of 2010," Goss says. He says the state and the region will continue to see rising unemployment rates, although he expects to see those jobless figures top out in the next few months and then they’ll likely plateau for a few more months.