The Midwest economy is weakening according to a new report. Creighton economist Ernie Goss says the Business Conditions Index declined for the second straight month in June.
“I’m thinking this economy is slowing down and weakening, but it’s nothing like what we’re seeing in the national or global economy,” Goss said. The index for nine mostly Midwestern states — including Iowa — fell to 57.2 in June compared with 57.6 in May and 60 in April.
An index above 50 indicates a growing economy is expected over the next three to six months. Goss, who conducts the monthly survey of supply managers, said the index had been rising from month to month earlier this year.
“The second half of 2012, I’m expecting weaker employment growth and weaker economic growth in comparison with the first half of 2012,” Goss said. Supply managers in the Midwest are more confident about the economy, according to the June index.
Goss said only 8% of those surveyed believe there will be a return to a recession in 2013. “If you ask that question at the national level, you’re going to get 20, 30 or 40 percent saying they think we’re going to have a recession,” Goss said.
In addition to Iowa, the Business Conditions Index includes Arkansas, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Oklahoma and South Dakota.