Fifty-five percent of those surveyed for the Quinnipiac University Poll supported the six-term senator. Judge, a former state ag secretary who also served one term as Iowa’s lieutenant governor, got 43 percent.
“That’s a pretty solid lead,” says Peter Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac Poll. “Not insurmountable, of course, but given Grassley’s almost 100 percent exposure to the Iowa electorate, he’s in very, very good shape for reelection.”
Grassley has an overwhelming 25 point lead among men. Nearly half of the women surveyed said they’d vote for Grassley, while the other half said they’d vote for Judge.
“Mr. Grassley is so well known that he’s able to break the gender gap rule which is Democratic women candidates do better among women,” Brown says, “but in fact the best that Ms. Judge can do is a 49-49 tie among women.”
Judge has locked down support from 88 percent of Democrats, while Grassley has the support of 94 percent of Republicans polled. Grassley also has an 11 point lead among independent voters.
“He’s in very, very strong shape,” Brown says. “Anything’s possible, but you can be pretty sure the boys in Vegas aren’t giving good odds to Ms. Judge.”
A Quinnipiac University Poll conducted in August showed Grassley leading Judge by nearly the same margin. This latest poll was conducted from September 13-21. It has a margin of error of plus or minus four percent.
Robert Haus, Grassley’s campaign manager, issued a written statement this afternoon in reaction to these poll results.
“Iowans know and respect Sen. Grassley’s hard work,” Haus said, “and these results underscore his growing momentum and broad based support.”
A spokesman for Judge’s campaign was not immediately available for comment.