The latest Creighton University survey of businesses in nine Midwest states shows continued growth — but economist Ernie Goss says that growth isn’t very fast.
“The overall index is in solid growth range. Although it’s when you compare it to earlier months it’s still down, we’re seeing softer growth than what we saw earlier in the year, and what we saw at this time last year,” according to Goss. The survey asks questions about employment and other economic trends and creates an index ranging from zero to 150. The overall index moved up by a little more than a point to 59.8 in July.
“We asked about confidence looking at the economy six months ahead, it was still very weak but up from last month, so things are moving along, not like what we’d like to see but much better than what we’re seeing in some of the national numbers have come out,” Goss says.
There’s a debate about whether the country has moved into a recession — Goss says the signs point that way.
“We’re probably in a recession or skating along and moving into the recession in the next quarter or so,” he says. Goss says the recession is not having a full-blown impact on all sectors of the economy.
“I’ll call it recession diversity. In other words, the manufacturing sector continues to move along at the national level not quite as strong as the regional level. But even there, we’re not seeing a recession in the manufacturing sector,” Goss says. “It’s more of other sectors, leisure and hospitality other sectors where you’re seeing numbers well below growth neutral, in fact in negative territory in terms of GDP,” Goss says.
Goss says listen carefully to what the Federal Reserve Governors say because when they see a recession ahead they’re going to be raising interest rates