If the Trump administration goes through with threatened tariffs on Mexican imports, Iowans may have to change up their Super Bowl snack plans if they want fresh guacamole.
University of Iowa professor Viridiana Hernández is an expert on the history of avocado production in Mexico. She says Americans ate very few avocados four decades ago, but there was a tremendous change with the trade deal called NAFTA.
Hernández says, “With the North American Free Trade Agreement, Mexico was allowed to ship Mexican-grown avocados to the States for the first time in 1997 and the avocado took off.” Since the new millennium arrived, avocado consumption in Iowa and the U.S. has practically gone off the charts.
“It’s tens of millions of avocados every year, and 90% of them are grown in this region in western Mexico, only in Michoacán,” Hernández says. “Nine out of every ten avocados that we consume here in the United States have been grown in Michoacán only in the last couple of decades.”
While the state of Michoacán has seen significant job opportunities with the drastic increase in demand for avocados, it’s also seen a steep rise in soil erosion, faster deforestation, and an increase in violent crime. If the Trump administration enacts the tariffs before the Super Bowl on February 9th, Michoacán will need to make a crucial shift.
“Growers who are now at the peak of their production would have to keep part of that production in Mexico for the domestic market,” Hernández says, “and another part of the production would have to be allocated in other places. Michoacán also sends some part of its production to Asia, particularly to Japan.”
Higher tariffs on imported avocados will also mean higher prices for American consumers, especially during the big game.
“The price decreases during the Super Bowl weekend, because that is the moment when Mexican growers send most avocados to the States, and many people have a close association between the Super Bowl and guacamole,” Hernández says. “So with an increase in tariffs, it would represent a 15-to-20% increase in the price of avocados in the States.”
Despite limited domestic production in California, she says Americans are among the top global consumers of avocados, as consumption tripled from 2001 to 2020. Also, Hernández says a full 20% of annual U.S. avocado sales come on Super Bowl weekend.