Iowa’s economy saw a significant upward bounce during the past month, but analysts fear the volatility of the current international trade climate will mean a big drop is likely for the month — and months — ahead.
The latest Creighton University survey of supply managers in Iowa and eight other Midwestern states during March showed the best overall numbers since July of 2022, but Creighton economist Ernie Goss says fears over a looming trade war cloud everything.
“Twenty-five percent indicated that they had advanced their purchases from abroad or from outside of the U.S. in anticipation of higher tariffs,” Goss says, “and fully one-third said they had reduced imports because of the anticipation of tariffs.”
Goss says he’s not supportive of the threatened tariffs, the latest of which are expected to be announced by President Trump on Wednesday, as Goss says tariffs are “really, really causing issues for the manufacturers.” The survey gauges the economy on a zero-to-100 scale, with 50 being growth neutral. The overall index for Iowa in March exceeded 56, a tremendous jump from around 44 in February.
“What we’re seeing is extreme volatility in our surveys, up and down, but this is a big jump upward,” Goss says, “and I expect us to have to pay for it in the next month when it comes down.”
Goss says recent declines in the value of the dollar helped make American-made goods more competitively priced abroad, which pushed new export orders up. For the first time in a long time, Goss says a large number of supply managers across the Midwest reported having more applicants than openings.
“Hiring was very strong for March. The number was 67.6 and that’s well up from February’s 51.2, so it’s also the highest since July of 2022,” Goss says. “We’re seeing some really good numbers, but again, this is for the month of March and I just don’t think we’re going to see it replicated in months ahead.”
According to U.S. International Trade Administration data, Goss says the Iowa economy began the year with $1.1 billion in manufacturing exports, compared to $1.2 billion for the same period in 2024, for a 7.6% reduction.