A University of Iowa political scientist says the upcoming mid-term election will be good for Democrats as he predicts they’ll gain control of Congress. Professor Michael Lewis-Beck says his political forecasting is reliable because it’s based on a variety of key factors, none of which involve polling voters. Lewis-Beck says his “serious” election forecasting is all based on statistical models, formulas and historic trends derived from all elections since the end of World War Two.Based on years of data, at midterm, the party in the White House always has an uphill fight, Democrat or Republican, and historically loses an average of 25 seats in the House and four in the Senate. Still, other items have to be factored in. Lewis-Beck says two of those key factors in predicting the outcome of an election are the economy and a president’s popularity.The economy is growing at a rate that’s better than most people realize while President Bush’s popularity is fairly strong at 70-percent. Based on those factors, Republicans will likely only lose eight seats in the House instead of two-dozen. That loss of eight seats will be enough to give the power to the Democrats in the House and he predicts that party will retain control of the Senate.
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