Forecasters are warning of an elevated risk for severe thunderstorms this afternoon and tonight for much of the state, especially east-central and southeast Iowa.
Meteorologist Tim Gross, at the National Weather Service office in Davenport, says a powerful storm cell moved over eastern Iowa this morning, dropping large hail south of the Iowa City area, the first of what’s shaping up to be three systems that will march across Iowa today.
“This afternoon and tonight, we’ll have additional chances and two rounds of storm chances,” Gross says, “and with those two, we’ll have all hazards of severe weather possible, strong damaging wind gusts, tornadoes and large hail.” A similar advisory was posted last Thursday, warning of the potential for severe weather the following day.
The storms on Friday spun off at least 16 tornadoes, injuring nine people, and damaging numerous homes, farms and businesses. Twelve counties were declared state disaster areas. Gross says today’s conditions are developing in a very similar pattern compared to last week.
“There’s still a little bit more uncertainty regarding if we’re going to have a widespread tornado outbreak, but the chances and the ingredients are there for several long-track tornadoes are possible,” Gross says. “As far as the severity, as far as the number of tornadoes, that is still kind of uncertain at this moment.” When large masses of cold and warm air collide, severe weather will often be the result.
“With this system, there’ll be a warm front lifting north and temperatures south of the warm front, we’re going to get into the upper 70s even close to 80 degrees,” Gross says, “and so that gives us thunderstorm instability and strength for the storms to work with.” The greatest risk for severe weather, Gross says, is from 4 to 11 p.m. He advises people who’ll be outside during those hours to stay “weather aware” and keep tabs on where the nearest shelter is located.